RV 1638 · YUL → MCO

took off 7:57 PM EDT · expected to land 10:46 PM ET (scheduled 8:01 PM EDT → 11:18 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1638 · YUL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?