Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA ROUGE · FLIGHT RV 1638 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

RV 1638 · YUL → MCO

departs 7:10 PM EDT · arrives 10:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±6 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ RV's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YUL

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1638 · YUL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?