Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA ROUGE · FLIGHT RV 1654 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

RV 1654 · YUL → MIA

departs 6:29 PM EDT · arrives 10:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YUL

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.64 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1654 · YUL → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?