TP 204 · EWR → LIS

took off 1:49 AM ET · expected to land 11:51 AM WET (scheduled 1:22 AM ET → 12:26 PM WET)

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LIS more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TP 204 · EWR → LIS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIS?