Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

TAP AIR PORTUGAL · FLIGHT TP 210 IN THE AIR (OFF 12:31 AM ET, ETA 10:27 AM WET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

TP 210 · JFK → LIS

took off 12:31 AM ET · expected to land 10:27 AM WET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LIS more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TP 210 · JFK → LIS

Odds over time