Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

TAP AIR PORTUGAL · FLIGHT TP 210 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

TP 210 · JFK → LIS

departs 10:13 PM ET · arrives 8:45 AM WET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at LIS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIS?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Arrivals into LIS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TP 210 · JFK → LIS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIS?