Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1194 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 1194 · DEN → PHX

departs 8:50 PM MT · arrives 9:48 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1194 · DEN → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?