Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1223 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 1223 · ORD → CVG

departs 9:25 PM CT · arrives 11:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1223 · ORD → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?