Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1585 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

UA 1585 · DEN → RAP

departs 11:04 AM MT · arrives 12:18 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at RAP more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RAP?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ RAP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

RAP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1585 · DEN → RAP

Odds over time

How late will it get to RAP?