Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1749 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 1749 · SFO → OGG

departs 4:40 PM PT · arrives 7:17 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1749 · SFO → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?