UA 185 · GUM → YAP

took off 11:41 PM ChST · landed 12:53 AM +10 (scheduled 11:35 PM ChST → 1:25 AM +10)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at YAP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to YAP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into YAP at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

YAP (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 185 · GUM → YAP

Odds over time

How late did it get to YAP?