Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1922 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

UA 1922 · SFO → ORD

departs 1:56 PM PT · arrives 8:12 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1922 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?