Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1922 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

UA 1922 · SFO → ORD

departs 1:51 PM PT · arrives 8:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1922 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?