UA 1973 · MSY → SFO

took off 8:09 AM CT · expected to land 10:14 AM PT (scheduled 8:05 AM CT → 10:55 AM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1973 · MSY → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?