Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1973 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

UA 1973 · MSY → SFO

departs 8:06 AM CT · arrives 10:54 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1973 · MSY → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?