UA 2282 · LAX → IAD

took off 9:38 PM PT · landed 4:53 AM ET (scheduled 9:36 PM PT → 5:31 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to IAD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling10,314 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2282 · LAX → IAD

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAD?