Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3910 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

UA 3910 · MIA → ORD

departs 12:02 PM ET · arrives 2:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.48 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3910 · MIA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?