Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8207 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

UA 8207 · DEN → MSP

departs 5:37 PM MT · arrives 8:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at DEN that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8207 · DEN → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?