Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

BAHAMASAIR · FLIGHT UP 2302 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

UP 2302 · MIA → NAS

departs 9:11 PM ET · arrives 9:43 PM EDT

Your aircraft is C6BFZ (B737), coming in as UP 229 from NAS: landed 7:41 PM ET.

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at NAS more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ NAS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.64 in

NAS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UP 2302 · MIA → NAS

Odds over time