WN 1516 · DCA → OMA

departs 4:48 PM ET · arrives 6:39 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OMA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1516 · DCA → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?