WN 257 · BWI → MIA

departs 6:58 PM ET · arrives 9:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±7 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts36 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 257 · BWI → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?