WN 2795 · TPA → DCA

departs 3:51 PM ET · arrives 6:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2795 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?