WN 2869 · MDW → DCA

departs 5:39 AM CT · arrives 8:38 AM ET

Your aircraft is N8661A (B738), coming in as WN 2395 from SAN: landed 1:07 AM CT.

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from MDW are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2869 · MDW → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?