WN 2981 · SFO → SAN

departs 11:05 AM PT · arrives 12:44 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 48% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

SAN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2981 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?