Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 2981 · SFO → SAN
departs 11:10 AM PT · arrives 12:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 48% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.