WN 3104 · MSY → DCA

departs 8:46 AM CT · arrives 12:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3104 · MSY → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?