WN 4538 · DEN → SEA

departs 12:20 PM MT · arrives 1:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4538 · DEN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?