Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 4538 · DEN → SEA
departs 12:25 PM MT · arrives 2:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 53%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.