WN 501 · MCO → SJO

departs 10:43 AM ET · arrives 11:43 AM CST

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at SJO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SJO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10am departures from MCO are often late

↑ MCO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at MCO that day

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 501 · MCO → SJO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJO?