Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
WN 501 · MCO → SJO
departs 11:07 AM ET · arrives 12:19 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SJO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJO?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from MCO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJO
↓
Arrivals into SJO at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.