WN 550 · BWI → MIA

departs 2:46 PM ET · arrives 5:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±14 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
22%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 550 · BWI → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?