Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 120
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
XL 120 · UIO → MIA
departs 5:07 PM -05 · arrives 10:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±1 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO
Weather at each end
UIO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.64 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.