Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 1451 LANDED 7:01 PM -05, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

XL 1451 · MIA → UIO

took off 4:24 PM ET · landed 7:01 PM -05 (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at UIO more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at MIA that day

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.64 in

UIO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

XL 1451 · MIA → UIO

Odds over time