Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 1457
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
XL 1457 · MIA → UIO
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 7:17 PM -05
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 21%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at UIO more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at UIO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to UIO?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 36 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
4pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.41 in
UIO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.