Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 214
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
XL 214 · UIO → MIA
departs 12:14 PM -05 · arrives 5:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO
Weather at each end
UIO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.