Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 216
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
XL 216 · UIO → MIA
departs 10:48 AM -05 · arrives 4:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
UIO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.48 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.