Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 217
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
XL 217 · MIA → UIO
departs 4:26 PM ET · arrives 7:42 PM -05
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at UIO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
24%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at UIO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
How late will it get to UIO?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
24%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt forecast at MIA that day
↑
4pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.64 in
UIO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.