Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 219
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
XL 219 · MIA → VCP
departs 7:54 AM ET · arrives 5:18 PM -03
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at VCP more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at VCP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at VCP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to VCP?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 36 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
7am departures from MIA are usually not late
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.41 in
VCP (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.