Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 220
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
XL 220 · UIO → MIA
departs 11:41 PM -05 · arrives 4:58 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 36 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO
Weather at each end
UIO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.