Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
XL 226 · UIO → MIA
departs 1:17 PM -05 · arrives 6:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave UIO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO
Weather at each end
UIO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 36 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.41 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.