Y4 1811 · SMF → GDL

took off 11:37 PM PT · expected to land 4:03 AM CST (scheduled 11:33 PM PT → 4:26 AM CST)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to GDL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SMF is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at SMF that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GDL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 1811 · SMF → GDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to GDL?