Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 1851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
Y4 1851 · SEA → GDL
departs 11:00 PM PT · arrives 5:02 AM CST
Your aircraft is XAVSR (A21N).
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at GDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GDL?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GDL
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.04 in
GDL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.