Y4 761 · DEN → MEX

took off 5:00 PM MT · expected to land 8:07 PM CST (scheduled 1:23 PM MT → 5:10 PM CST)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEX?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
100%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 761 · DEN → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?