Y4 781 · MCO → MEX

left the gate 6:13 PM ET · taxiing (scheduled 6:07 PM ET → 7:31 PM CST)

Your aircraft is N534VL (A21N), coming in as Y4 780 from MEX: landed 4:04 PM ET.

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 781 · MCO → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?