Y4 7831 · MDW → ZCL

took off 1:57 PM CT · landed 4:37 PM CST (scheduled 2:01 PM CT → 5:03 PM CST)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ZCL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ZCL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 2pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ZCL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ZCL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 7831 · MDW → ZCL

Odds over time

How late did it get to ZCL?