Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 7831 · MDW → ZCL
departs 2:01 PM CT · arrives 4:48 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ZCL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ZCL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ZCL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ZCL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at ZCL that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
ZCL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ZCL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.