Y4 7843 · MDW → AGU

took off 5:50 PM CT · expected to land 8:41 PM CST (scheduled 5:51 PM CT → 9:05 PM CST)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at AGU more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AGU?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 5pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

AGU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

Y4 7843 · MDW → AGU

Odds over time

How late will it get to AGU?