Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7843
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
Y4 7843 · MDW → AGU
departs 5:53 PM CT · arrives 8:47 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 14%
Mon 11/2 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at AGU more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AGU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at AGU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AGU?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AGU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AGU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.