Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3563
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
YX 3563 · EWR → MEM
departs 9:23 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 10%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.