Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
YX 3627 · CLT → EWR
departs 1:14 PM ET · arrives 3:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 14%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from CLT are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.